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The Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire Chamber of Commerce says that the regional economy is still not quite out of recession despite national indications that the downturn is finally over.

The UK's worst recession in more than 50 years is to be confirmed as officially over with the release of the last quarter's Gross Domestic Product figures but the Chamber's own research shows that the area is not yet back in the black. 

George Cowcher, chief executive of the Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire Chamber, said: "Whilst national figures will indicate that the UK as a whole finally came out of recession in the last quarter of 2009, the local picture is very different.

"The findings of the Chamber's latest Quarterly Economic Survey point to a flattening economy in the last three months of the year, indicating that whilst the region is on the brink of leaving recession, it is not quite there yet. The national figures may be slightly skewed by a rise in exports - driven by the weakened pound - helping the manufacturing sector to an increase in output and stronger than average Q4 economic growth in key areas of the UK such as the south-east. 

"What is clear is that this has been an extremely slow and gradual recovery following six consecutive quarters in recession. However, businesses are showing resilience despite difficult and uncertain trading conditions.

"Confidence is slowly returning and the recent boost in exports must now be nurtured in order to help rebalance the economy away from an over-reliance on the public sector. It is vital that Government demonstrates its support of the business sector in 2010. Additional business burdens must be avoided and the planned 1% increase to employers' National Insurance contributions in 2011 should be scrapped.

"How the Bank of England responds to rising inflation will also be key. Close control of Government spending is as important as raising interest rates in reducing inflationary pressures.

"Unless the private sector is given the freedom to create jobs and wealth, the UK's economic recovery will be slower than it should be, and we will face the serious risk of a double-dip recession."